The Economic Consequences of the Peace John Maynard Keynes 9781542519892 Books
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The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked characteristic of mankind. Very few of us realize with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organization by which Western Europe has lived for the last half century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly. On this sandy and false foundation we scheme for social improvement and dress our political platforms, pursue our animosities and particular ambitions, and feel ourselves with enough margin in hand to foster, not assuage, civil conflict in the European family. Moved by insane delusion and reckless self-regard, the German people overturned the foundations on which we all lived and built. But the spokesmen of the French and British peoples have run the risk of completing the ruin, which Germany began, by a Peace which, if it is carried into effect, must impair yet further, when it might have restored, the delicate, complicated organization, already shaken and broken by war, through which alone the European peoples can employ themselves and live.
The Economic Consequences of the Peace John Maynard Keynes 9781542519892 Books
There are a number of surprises throughout this extended essay making it worth your attention. Keynes, still in his thirties, deconstructs the allied treaty at Versailles following the victory over Germany in World War I. His primary criticisms are that the Treaty is vengeful, unfair, and pays little attention to the economic consequences of its terms. At times Keynes is poetic: he is writing in the "dead season of our fortunes" [1919]. His words are urgent, because this Treaty has "destructive significance". It is morbidly prophetic: "If we aim deliberately at this impoverishment of Central Europe, vengeance...will not limp."Keynes' Dickensian sketches of the key Allied players, the UK's Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, France's Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau and the U.S. President, Woodrow Wilson are vivid and devastating. Keynes' "Economic Consequences" is worth reading for these alone. How different a picture of President Wilson we get from Keynes versus what we read in middle school history. To the Cambridge-educated Keynes, Wilson is "slow and unadaptable", elsewhere "ill-informed", "incompetent", a naïve idealist ill-equipped to negotiate a just and lasting peace with more skilled counterparts.
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The Economic Consequences of the Peace John Maynard Keynes 9781542519892 Books Reviews
Absolutely a must read for either the history or economics (or 20th century warfare) folks out there. John Maynard Keynes writing, so soon after the end of hostilities in 1919, is written from a true insiders perspective. His assessments of conditions at that time and their likely playing out have proven in long hindsight spot on. In all cases except the Soviet Union (in my opinion) his predictions, based on economic data and human nature (not politics, revenge, greed, nationalism, etc) are frankly so accurate as to amaze me. Keynes lived until 1946. It is clear to see his influence on the "modern" (post WWII) world. It is a sad fact that this book and its message were largely ignored until the second war, with negative consequences to the between-wars Europe (and world) that can hardly be overstated. Finally, his descriptions of the main individuals involved in the "peace process" and their strengths/weaknesses/perspectives is as relevant today as it was then, for the individuals have changed with the generations but the same forces that shape policy are still at work.
A youthful John Maynard Keynes, having endured what for him as an honest Englishman and one who possessed such a brilliant , rich turn of phrase, redolent of any historian of any time, in my opinion, has written the definitive reasons for the utter failure of the Treaty of Versailles to even have any prospect of being successful in any way, and that is because the allies simply overreached in their political desire to so humble Germany, the real engine of growth in the economy of Europe, that the most likely consequence of such a political, fiscal political and public humiliation of Germany would likely see a war within less than 20 years.
How could the economic engine of Europe of 1914 possibly pay reparations that were far more punitive than realistic, and, in his view, would never be repaid when her ships were sunk or given away to th the allies, their railway capacity was going to be so degraded that it was not much better than nothing?
But let me conclude with some words from his very first paragraph"Very few of us realise with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organization by which Western Europe has lived for the last century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly.On this sandy and false foundation we scheme for social improvement and dress our political platforms, pursue our animosities and particular ambitions, and feel ourselves with enough margin... to foster, not assuage, civil conflict in the European family. Moved by insane delusions and reckless self regard the German people overturned (these) foundations........... But the spokesman for the French and British peoples have run the risk of completing the ruin which Germany began...."
He concludes his fairly short 116 page book with this dedication we have been moved already beyond endurance, and need rest. Never in the lifetime of men now living has the universal element in the soul of man burnt so dimly... To the formation of the general opinion of the future I dedicate this book."
This book established Keynes as a major economic and political analyst. Because he was a homosexual who became a bisexual, he had great insight into analysis of men and their motivations, strengths, and weaknesses. He knew which weaknesses other men would be able to exploit and how they would do it. Because of his economic analytical skills, he alone was able to see these strengths and weaknesses would lead to parochial outcomes for the Big Four (France, Great Britain, Italy, USA) and an impossible situation for Germany. His prediction of failure of the Peace conditions was validated by the German economic collapse and subsequent rise of the Nazi party. Probably due to Clemenceau and the French who were bailed out by the Brits and Americans. The French were obviously girly-men who lost battles but prevailed in negotiating peace conditions when the American victors sat back and remained silent. As the French surrender-monkeys always do.
There are a number of surprises throughout this extended essay making it worth your attention. Keynes, still in his thirties, deconstructs the allied treaty at Versailles following the victory over Germany in World War I. His primary criticisms are that the Treaty is vengeful, unfair, and pays little attention to the economic consequences of its terms. At times Keynes is poetic he is writing in the "dead season of our fortunes" [1919]. His words are urgent, because this Treaty has "destructive significance". It is morbidly prophetic "If we aim deliberately at this impoverishment of Central Europe, vengeance...will not limp."
Keynes' Dickensian sketches of the key Allied players, the UK's Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, France's Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau and the U.S. President, Woodrow Wilson are vivid and devastating. Keynes' "Economic Consequences" is worth reading for these alone. How different a picture of President Wilson we get from Keynes versus what we read in middle school history. To the Cambridge-educated Keynes, Wilson is "slow and unadaptable", elsewhere "ill-informed", "incompetent", a naïve idealist ill-equipped to negotiate a just and lasting peace with more skilled counterparts.
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